Just testing a theory

1
Facebook.com 9,616,4871,688,316,9289.54

9.34

9
0 2
Twitter.com 6,454,9362,147,483,6479.40

9.25

10
0 3
Google.com 5,868,081807,173,4589.30

9.27

9
0 4
Youtube.com 5,442,206841,281,2149.25

9.11

9
0 5
Wordpress.org 4,051,288361,023,9928.99

8.71

9
0 6
Adobe.com 3,498,190232,289,3159.30

9.27

9
0 7
Blogspot.com 3,073,493793,032,0478.77

8.71

9
0 8
Wikipedia.org 2,917,053206,217,7348.83

8.72

9
0 9
Linkedin.com 2,435,569327,700,2198.95

8.81

9
+1 10
Wordpress.com 2,340,965569,397,0428.65

8.60

9
-1 11
Yahoo.com 1,861,842238,957,1458.59

8.57

9
0 12
Amazon.com 1,484,676292,923,6798.52

8.53

8
0 13
Flickr.com 1,358,104286,854,6728.52

8.53

9
0 14
Pinterest.com 1,352,927513,534,5808.66

8.51

9
+1 15
Tumblr.com 1,191,345171,050,3448.41

8.28

8
+2 16
W3.org 1,177,374227,633,1368.56

8.89

9
-2 17
Apple.com 1,117,304102,599,2198.81

9.00

9
-1 18
Myspace.com 1,013,45383,924,3168.17

8.06

8
0 19
Vimeo.com 999,01657,480,8488.48

8.42

9
+1 20
Microsoft.com 956,18191,152,5148.82

8.79

8
-1 21
Youtu.be 931,33331,773,6588.40

8.40

7
New 22
Qq.com 914,585407,320,6968.53

7.39

8
0 23
Digg.com 905,105127,111,8908.11

8.02

7
-2 24
Baidu.com 803,865102,802,7848.56

7.33

9
0 25
Stumbleupon.com 768,871101,628,7677.91

7.85

8
-2 26
Addthis.com 752,346201,250,3398.57

8.51

10
-1 27
Statcounter.com 697,543123,794,3908.43

8.25

8
0 28
Feedburner.com 685,268244,409,0988.26

8.16

6
+1 29
Miibeian.gov.cn 674,946160,119,3668.45

7.48

9
-3 30
Delicious.com 665,15881,045,4117.76

7.74

8
+2 31
Nytimes.com 661,33036,096,0158.26

8.88

9
-1 32
Reddit.com 659,16384,400,1327.87

7.86

8
-1 33
Weebly.com 608,47539,488,9137.97

7.95

8
+3 34
Bbc.co.uk 608,37143,901,5838.03

8.82

9
+1 35
Blogger.com 603,375673,647,9188.13

7.93

9
+2 36
Msn.com 601,49542,688,0297.96

8.08

8
-3 37
Macromedia.com 581,87220,516,4228.49

8.35

9
-3 38
Goo.gl 573,63438,032,8798.35

8.22

7
+1 39
Instagram.com 569,173156,894,7148.48

8.28

9
+12 40
Gov.uk 533,73831,391,9138.24

8.86

8
0 41
Icio.us 513,11392,736,5797.84

7.81

4
-3 42
Yandex.ru 510,610117,319,5848.07

7.44

8
0 43
Cnn.com 490,83128,875,7908.11

8.84

9
-2 44
Webs.com 463,59455,305,0977.56

7.65

7
-1 45
Google.de 452,79813,372,3708.14

7.60

7
-1 46
T.co 445,071175,358,5728.15

8.09

7
+13 47
Livejournal.com 434,85155,768,8277.61

7.44

8
-1 48
Imdb.com 433,21529,004,9657.80

7.84

8
+1 49
Mail.ru 428,919108,904,3418.03

7.38

8
-4 50
Jimdo.com 419,97921,621,7787.85

7.38

8
0 51
Sourceforge.net 412,49844,351,1468.14

8.31

8
-4 52
Go.com 406,54121,552,8378.07

8.83

8
-4 53
Tinyurl.com 398,07616,197,4487.78

7.97

7
0 54
Vk.com 396,29171,671,7348.05

7.42

9
+10 55
Google.co.jp 393,23819,353,9338.46

7.91

8
0 56
Fc2.com 388,560106,938,1177.93

7.37

6
-2 57
Free.fr 386,99716,426,4457.68

7.60

7
-5 58
Joomla.org 382,93649,473,1078.00

7.76

9
-1 59
Creativecommons.org 382,58666,038,6588.04

8.87

9
+3 60
Typepad.com 380,36970,664,3227.76

7.91

7
-4 61
Networkadvertising.org 376,2861,599,7858.48

8.24

9
-1 62
Technorati.com 369,852101,252,2337.58

7.58

7
-4 63
Sina.com.cn 368,03249,106,2018.01

7.25

8
-2 64
Hugedomains.com 364,3007,401,2617.01

6.69

4
+7 65
About.com 354,5716,204,4727.66

7.88

7
-2 66
Theguardian.com 351,23616,315,9177.56

8.13

7
+15 67
Yahoo.co.jp 349,19042,321,2168.10

7.54

8
-2 68
Nih.gov 345,99753,897,9297.93

8.85

8
+1 69
Huffingtonpost.com 345,81453,967,4978.05

8.11

8
+7 70
Google.co.uk 342,5419,841,2748.25

7.93

7
-2 71
Mozilla.org 341,45119,328,7368.12

8.81

9
+1 72
51.la 341,12281,419,9208.39

7.67

5
+7 73
Aol.com 339,00136,113,1377.71

8.78

8
-6 74
Ebay.com 338,60670,884,7807.80

7.74

8
+1 75
Ameblo.jp 338,19831,464,2108.15

7.48

7
-1 76
Wsj.com 332,93523,717,7907.96

8.10

8
-3 77
Europa.eu 332,32132,009,1068.09

8.85

9
0 78
Taobao.com 323,934100,188,3487.96

6.92

7
+6 79
Bing.com 323,45830,513,1747.76

7.75

8
+3 80
Rambler.ru 316,004100,477,8638.01

7.34

8
-2 81
Guardian.co.uk 315,85411,849,9047.79

8.79

7
-15 82
Tripod.com 315,11815,948,9967.36

7.66

7
-12 83
Godaddy.com 311,7448,723,3187.88

7.66

7
+2 84
Issuu.com 302,71122,808,9987.97

7.97

9
+3 85
Gnu.org 298,21131,671,9367.90

8.79

8
-5 86
Geocities.com 296,00410,387,3857.49

7.82

7
-3 87
Slideshare.net 293,87314,030,0267.89

7.90

8
+3 88
Wix.com 292,9266,783,4207.90

7.72

8
+4 89
Mapquest.com 289,28711,773,3667.91

8.08

8
-3 90
Washingtonpost.com 283,48314,668,1277.92

8.82

8
-2 91
Homestead.com 276,4684,580,3457.92

7.85

8
+4 92
Reuters.com 273,39416,879,5247.83

7.96

8
-1 93
163.com 270,75430,886,7377.86

7.10

8
+1 94
Photobucket.com 270,11623,530,4717.55

7.53

7
-5 95
Forbes.com 265,6909,092,5457.86

7.98

8
+2 96
Clickbank.net 260,47021,683,7007.57

7.25

4
-3 97
Weibo.com 258,99989,685,5318.13

7.49

9
+8 98
Etsy.com 256,04617,263,5947.58

7.48

7
+3 99
Amazon.co.uk 252,93427,713,9857.71

7.67

8
+1 100
Dailymotion.com 251,44111,331,6617.59

7.56

8
+4 101
Soundcloud.com 251,16715,559,0387.66

7.54

8
-3 102
Usatoday.com 249,61912,142,6457.97

8.08

8
0 103
Yelp.com 247,0969,804,4117.91

7.81

7
+5 104
Cnet.com 245,3779,838,9577.73

7.81

8
-5 105
Posterous.com 241,07627,204,7767.17

7.24

8
-9 106
Telegraph.co.uk 236,4916,349,0597.59

7.72

8
+3 107
Archive.org 235,99917,355,2977.90

7.95

6
-1 108
Google.fr 232,2229,109,2197.86

7.54

8
+8 109
Constantcontact.com 231,89228,765,4087.95

8.16

8
+1 110
Phoca.cz 229,4587,283,3947.70

7.45

8
+1 111
Phpbb.com 227,04989,429,3337.67

7.50

7
-4 112
Latimes.com 223,3377,265,0847.63

8.78

8
0 113
E-recht24.de 220,848878,5387.76

7.13

7
+17 114
Rakuten.co.jp 219,13970,767,9927.83

7.26

7
0 115
Amazon.de 217,43136,971,6127.65

7.36

8
0 116
Opera.com 216,52010,226,2067.87

7.67

9
+2 117
Miitbeian.gov.cn 215,31353,741,3218.01

6.89

8
+24 118
Php.net 214,73525,505,1577.73

8.77

9
-5 119
Scribd.com 211,8568,777,2397.50

7.70

8
+1 120
Bbb.org 210,69418,802,5907.94

8.04

8
+17 121
Parallels.com 210,4364,662,4508.27

8.00

8
+11 122
Ning.com 210,35522,521,8667.39

7.60

7
-5 123
Dailymail.co.uk 206,2535,004,3337.50

7.61

7
+3 124
Cdc.gov 206,1955,347,6457.72

8.22

9
+1 125
Sohu.com 205,71418,837,4717.71

6.91

8
-1 126
Wikimedia.org 202,5515,147,5867.46

7.59

7
+3 127
Deviantart.com 202,2139,483,9257.39

7.25

7
+1 128
Mit.edu 201,47354,476,9977.53

8.78

9
-1 129
Sakura.ne.jp 201,21715,344,2617.45

7.04

5
-7 130
Altervista.org 200,0487,842,4287.09

6.99

6
-7 131
Addtoany.com 198,59166,825,8207.72

7.64

9
+5 132
Time.com 198,4936,916,3587.86

7.94

8
+1 133
Google.it 197,9185,200,3617.78

7.29

7
-2 134
Stanford.edu 196,7226,535,5027.64

8.79

9
0 135
Live.com 196,21212,598,1387.65

7.59

7
-16 136
Alibaba.com 195,84962,390,1157.64

7.15

7
+2 137
Squidoo.com 194,5456,793,3876.97

7.05

6
-16 138
Harvard.edu 193,48459,027,7277.58

8.79

8
-3 139
Gravatar.com 193,1999,452,8857.14

7.00

8
+5 140
Histats.com 190,44578,342,8307.82

7.37

7
+9 141
Nasa.gov 188,9167,920,2147.57

8.79

8
-2 142
Npr.org 188,2079,227,0427.57

7.92

8
0 143
Ca.gov 188,1337,062,2587.64

8.81

7
0 144
Eventbrite.com 187,6638,611,3008.08

8.08

8
+12 145
Wired.com 183,8937,265,2977.61

8.77

8
0 146
Amazon.co.jp 183,522124,838,3627.79

7.32

8
+5 147
Nbcnews.com 182,0525,234,7787.25

7.54

8
+20 148
Blog.com 178,8448,686,9506.83

6.88

6
+5 149
Amazonaws.com 177,94866,237,4798.00

7.93

8
+12 150
Bloomberg.com 177,78810,009,7087.64

8.78

8
+5 151
Narod.ru 174,1908,305,2607.12

7.04

7
-5 152
Blinklist.com 173,89219,441,3876.67

6.76

6
+7 153
Imageshack.us 173,70212,827,1927.23

7.12

7
-13 154
Kickstarter.com 172,9333,438,8547.47

7.47

7
+54 155
Hatena.ne.jp 172,91444,292,5377.80

7.48

7
-7 156
Nifty.com 172,6147,286,7517.57

7.20

7
-4 157
Angelfire.com 170,1424,334,1507.09

7.40

7
-7 158
Google.es 169,6155,878,1697.68

7.36

7
-1 159
Ocn.ne.jp 169,4495,406,3607.71

7.23

6
-1 160
Over-blog.com 169,2319,724,0747.14

7.02

6
-6 161
Dedecms.com 164,75319,344,6398.06

6.55

7
-1 162
Google.ca 163,9745,385,2417.70

7.65

7
0 163
A8.net 163,92921,574,2437.78

7.29

5
+7 164
Weather.com 163,6469,117,3327.49

7.77

8
+5 165
Pbs.org 163,2494,822,7767.44

8.78

8
0 166
Ibm.com 162,9425,934,9527.74

8.80

8
-3 167
Cpanel.net 162,5841,930,6658.20

8.06

9
+8 168
Prweb.com 162,4143,833,7637.41

7.57

7
-4 169
Bandcamp.com 160,7887,649,3897.51

7.39

7
+17 170
Barnesandnoble.com 160,6789,622,5487.57

8.77

8
New 171
Mozilla.com 160,0807,139,1677.82

7.87

9
-3 172
Noaa.gov 159,92412,132,4547.54

8.81

9
-1 173
Goo.ne.jp 157,5339,835,7277.49

7.02

7
+3 174
Comsenz.com 157,46778,582,4737.68

6.74

8
+4 175
Xrea.com 156,86414,235,5577.63

7.25

6
-9 176
Cbsnews.com 156,4849,206,8007.52

7.81

9
-3 177
Foxnews.com 156,4309,435,5527.37

7.71

8
-5 178
Discuz.net 155,19772,223,3437.67

6.68

8
+4 179
Eepurl.com 154,15016,899,6497.72

7.74

6
+22 180
Businessweek.com 154,0655,871,7267.55

7.81

8
-3 181
Berkeley.edu 153,8954,770,8937.45

8.78

8
-2 182
Newsvine.com 153,43217,131,1577.00

7.14

7
-8 183
Bluehost.com 152,62033,728,6417.15

7.08

7
+1 184
Geocities.jp 150,1086,303,7447.47

7.08

6
-4 185
Loc.gov 149,4335,545,5257.55

8.81

9
-4 186
Yolasite.com 148,5146,719,7576.87

7.05

7
New 187
Apache.org 148,31711,656,1457.83

8.79

9
-2 188
Mashable.com 148,2865,447,9877.88

7.78

8
+6 189
Usda.gov 148,0455,211,5007.56

8.82

8
0 190
Nationalgeographic.com 147,4674,407,2917.47

8.77

8
+3 191
Whitehouse.gov 147,2506,478,9247.69

8.90

10
-4 192
Tripadvisor.com 146,51112,365,3837.76

7.77

7
+13 193
Ted.com 146,0152,860,4067.35

7.56

8
+7 194
Sfgate.com 145,3873,209,9127.80

7.87

8
-11 195
Biglobe.ne.jp 144,3484,202,6757.38

7.01

7
-4 196
Epa.gov 144,0584,771,3667.62

8.83

8
-1 197
Vkontakte.ru 143,30524,716,4817.66

7.06

9
-7 198
Oracle.com 143,00939,828,7217.66

8.78

8
-1 199
Seesaa.net 141,04814,381,4007.34

6.87

6
-11 200
Examiner.com 139,4173,887,1657.34

7.60

8
+3 201
Cornell.edu 139,1004,107,1727.45

8.80

8
+3 202
Hp.com 137,9574,133,4517.58

7.73

8
+4 203
Nps.gov 136,1083,288,4577.40

8.02

8
+4 204
Disqus.com 135,95853,040,1547.76

7.77

9
+35 205
Alexa.com 135,13417,948,2167.33

7.14

7
+6 206
Mysql.com 134,68619,461,4847.48

8.76

9
-7 207
House.gov 134,0995,350,7927.48

8.81

8
+2 208
Sphinn.com 133,6949,585,2126.11

6.34

6
+6 209
Boston.com 132,7293,545,7137.36

7.70

7
-11 210
Techcrunch.com 132,4738,561,4188.01

7.85

8
0 211
Un.org 132,3666,252,1127.54

8.80

9
+5 212
Squarespace.com 131,84510,497,2777.50

7.54

7
+14 213
Icq.com 131,73134,833,7867.33

7.00

6
-17 214
Freewebs.com 130,8396,000,6366.98

7.16

7
-22 215
Ezinearticles.com 129,2852,797,6347.06

7.07

6
-13 216
Ucoz.ru 129,03719,377,9817.14

6.52

7
-3 217
Independent.co.uk 128,6253,613,8637.33

7.52

8
+2 218
Mediafire.com 127,2256,728,1897.12

6.98

6
-6 219
Xinhuanet.com 127,0928,535,0267.47

7.26

9
-2 220
Google.nl 126,8233,552,8967.56

7.13

7
-5 221
Reverbnation.com 126,2603,326,6807.29

7.24

6
-1 222
Imgur.com 125,8455,914,6447.30

7.28

6
+97 223
Irs.gov 124,9014,366,0187.53

8.06

9
-2 224
Webnode.com 124,8294,663,5496.73

6.73

6
-1 225
Wunderground.com 124,3017,739,2547.43

7.76

8
-3 226
Bizjournals.com 124,2813,421,3637.58

7.83

7
+6 227
Who.int 124,2673,415,5327.58

8.79

8
-2 228
Soup.io 124,19719,596,1706.39

6.45

5
+59 229
Cloudflare.com 123,35010,446,1137.83

7.78

8
+48 230
People.com.cn 123,27412,802,4097.48

6.99

9
-12 231
Ustream.tv 123,0324,155,2037.87

7.85

8
-7 232
Senate.gov 122,4444,509,6787.42

8.80

8
-3 233
Cbslocal.com 121,6974,252,1877.40

7.68

7
+10 234
Ycombinator.com 120,9459,565,4246.77

6.90

7
+16 235
Opensource.org 120,4431,269,4717.45

8.75

8
-8 236
Spiegel.de 119,8408,625,0767.23

7.36

8
+1 237
Oaic.gov.au 119,512188,5097.55

7.55

8
-7 238
Nature.com 119,4014,842,0737.32

7.73

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+11 239
Businessinsider.com 118,8633,304,1037.61

7.65

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+20 240
Drupal.org 118,80617,967,8677.65

7.63

9
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Last.fm 118,69519,853,5297.22

7.19

8
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Privacy.gov.au 118,649172,5617.49

7.59

8
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Skype.com 118,6353,583,3217.33

7.29

8
-3 244
Wikia.com 117,8733,665,9197.14

7.29

6
+7 245
About.me 117,5164,588,4067.28

7.24

7
+38 246
Webmd.com 117,1645,952,0957.26

7.52

7
+14 247
Youku.com 116,29411,090,8827.56

6.99

8
+10 248
Gmpg.org 115,8704,596,3987.25

7.17

6
-12 249
Fda.gov 115,5473,462,3297.56

7.92

8
+5 250
Redcross.org 115,0602,256,7937.47

7.87

9
-9 251
Github.com 114,9378,191,9078.17

7.99

8
+14 252
Cbc.ca 114,7973,761,7297.25

7.55

8
-8 253
Umich.edu 114,4143,014,5447.39

8.78

7
-7 254
Jugem.jp 114,19423,584,0047.43

6.82

6
-9 255
Shinystat.com 114,08513,072,3217.64

7.11

7
+7 256
Google.com.br 114,0743,293,4267.45

7.05

7
-1 257
Ifeng.com 113,8486,053,1247.45

6.79

8
-5 258
Mac.com 112,9641,797,2027.28

7.43

9
-20 259
Wiley.com 112,3115,016,6897.50

7.88

8
+15 260
Discovery.com 112,0484,197,8897.25

7.56

8
-12 261
Topsy.com 111,5162,308,8577.58

7.43

6
-27 262
Paypal.com 111,3173,077,1667.72

7.52

8
+4 263
Google.cn 111,2416,862,6267.54

6.72

7
+28 264
Surveymonkey.com 111,0023,171,4977.75

8.02

9
-8 265
Moonfruit.com 110,7122,223,7906.93

6.80

6
-23 266
Dropbox.com 110,5432,581,5277.40

7.51

8
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Exblog.jp 110,4558,431,8387.45

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New

In the daily hubbub of current “crises” facing humanity, we forget about the many generations we hope are yet to come. Not those who will live 200 years from now, but 1,000 or 10,000 years from now. I use the word “hope” because we face risks, called existential risks, that threaten to wipe out humanity. These risks are not just for big disasters, but for the disasters that could end history.

These risks remain understudied. There is a sense of powerlessness and fatalism about them. People have been talking apocalypses for millennia, but few have tried to prevent them. Humans are also bad at doing anything about problems that have not occurred yet (partially because of the availability heuristic – the tendency to overestimate the probability of events we know examples of, and underestimate events we cannot readily recall).

If humanity becomes extinct, at the very least the loss is equivalent to the loss of all living individuals and the frustration of their goals. But the loss would probably be far greater than that. Human extinction means the loss of meaning generated by past generations, the lives of all future generations (and there could be an astronomical number of future lives) and all the value they might have been able to create. If consciousness or intelligence are lost, it might mean that value itself becomes absent from the universe. This is a huge moral reason to work hard to prevent existential threats from becoming reality. And we must not fail even once in this pursuit.

With that in mind, I have selected what I consider the five biggest threats to humanity’s existence. But there are caveats that must be kept in mind, for this list is not final.

Over the past century we have discovered or created new existential risks – supervolcanoes were discovered in the early 1970s, and before the Manhattan project nuclear war was impossible – so we should expect others to appear. Also, some risks that look serious today might disappear as we learn more. The probabilities also change over time – sometimes because we are concerned about the risks and fix them.

Finally, just because something is possible and potentially hazardous, doesn’t mean it is worth worrying about. There are some risks we cannot do anything at all about, such as gamma ray bursts that result from the explosions of galaxies. But if we learn we can do something, the priorities change. For instance, with sanitation, vaccines and antibiotics, pestilence went from being an act of God to a question of public health.

Nuclear war

While only two nuclear weapons have been used in war so far – at Hiroshima and Nagasaki in the second world war – and nuclear stockpiles are down from their the peak they reached in the cold war, it is a mistake to think that nuclear war is impossible. In fact, it might not be improbable.

The Cuban missile crisis was very close to turning nuclear. If we assume one such event every 69 years and a one in three chance that it might go all the way to being nuclear war, the chance of such a catastrophe increases to about one in 200 per year.

Worse still, the Cuban missile crisis was only the most well-known case. The history of Soviet-US nuclear deterrence is full of close calls and dangerous mistakes. The actual probability has changed depending on international tensions, but it seems implausible that the chances would be much lower than one in 1,000 per year.

A full-scale nuclear war between major powers would kill hundreds of millions of people directly or through the near aftermath – an unimaginable disaster. But that is not enough to make it an existential risk.

Similarly the hazards of fallout are often exaggerated – potentially deadly locally, but globally a relatively limited problem. Cobalt bombs were proposed as a hypothetical doomsday weapon that would kill everybody with fallout, but are in practice hard and expensive to build. And they are physically just barely possible.

The real threat is nuclear winter – that is, soot lofted into the stratosphere causing a multi-year cooling and drying of the world. Modern climate simulations show that it could preclude agriculture across much of the world for years. If this scenario occurs billions would starve, leaving only scattered survivors that might be picked off by other threats such as disease. The main uncertainty is how the soot would behave: depending on the kind of soot the outcomes may be very different, and we currently have no good ways of estimating this.

Bioengineered pandemic

Natural pandemics have killed more people than wars. However, natural pandemics are unlikely to be existential threats: there are usually some people resistant to the pathogen, and the offspring of survivors would be more resistant. Evolution also does not favour parasites that wipe out their hosts, which is why syphilis went from a virulent killer to a chronic disease as it spread in Europe.

Unfortunately we can now make diseases nastier. One of the more famous examples is how the introduction of an extra gene in mousepox – the mouse version of smallpox – made it far more lethal and able to infect vaccinated individuals. Recent work on bird flu has demonstrated that the contagiousness of a disease can be deliberately boosted.

Right now the risk of somebody deliberately releasing something devastating is low. But as biotechnology gets better and cheaper, more groups will be able to make diseases worse.

Most work on bioweapons have been done by governments looking for something controllable, because wiping out humanity is not militarily useful. But there are always some people who might want to do things because they can. Others have higher purposes. For instance, the Aum Shinrikyo cult tried to hasten the apocalypse using bioweapons beside their more successful nerve gas attack. Some people think the Earth would be better off without humans, and so on.

The number of fatalities from bioweapon and epidemic outbreaks attacks looks like it has a power-law distribution – most attacks have few victims, but a few kill many. Given current numbers the risk of a global pandemic from bioterrorism seems very small. But this is just bioterrorism: governments have killed far more people than terrorists with bioweapons (up to 400,000 may have died from the second world war Japanese biowar program). And as technology gets more powerful in the future nastier pathogens become easier to design.

Superintelligence

Intelligence is very powerful. A tiny increment in problem-solving ability and group coordination is why we left the other apes in the dust. Now their continued existence depends on human decisions, not what they do. Being smart is a real advantage for people and organisations, so there is much effort in figuring out ways of improving our individual and collective intelligence: from cognition-enhancing drugs to artificial-intelligence software.

The problem is that intelligent entities are good at achieving their goals, but if the goals are badly set they can use their power to cleverly achieve disastrous ends. There is no reason to think that intelligence itself will make something behave nice and morally. In fact, it is possible to prove that certain types of superintelligent systems would not obey moral rules even if they were true.

Even more worrying is that in trying to explain things to an artificial intelligence we run into profound practical and philosophical problems. Human values are diffuse, complex things that we are not good at expressing, and even if we could do that we might not understand all the implications of what we wish for.

Software-based intelligence may very quickly go from below human to frighteningly powerful. The reason is that it may scale in different ways from biological intelligence: it can run faster on faster computers, parts can be distributed on more computers, different versions tested and updated on the fly, new algorithms incorporated that give a jump in performance.

It has been proposed that an “intelligence explosion” is possible when software becomes good enough at making better software. Should such a jump occur there would be a large difference in potential power between the smart system (or the people telling it what to do) and the rest of the world. This has clear potential for disaster if the goals are badly set.

The unusual thing about superintelligence is that we do not know if rapid and powerful intelligence explosions are possible: maybe our current civilisation as a whole is improving itself at the fastest possible rate. But there are good reasons to think that some technologies may speed things up far faster than current societies can handle. Similarly we do not have a good grip on just how dangerous different forms of superintelligence would be, or what mitigation strategies would actually work. It is very hard to reason about future technology we do not yet have, or intelligences greater than ourselves. Of the risks on this list, this is the one most likely to either be massive or just a mirage.

Nanotechnology

Nanotechnology is the control over matter with atomic or molecular precision. That is in itself not dangerous – instead, it would be very good news for most applications. The problem is that, like biotechnology, increasing power also increases the potential for abuses that are hard to defend against.

The big problem is not the infamous “grey goo” of self-replicating nanomachines eating everything. That would require clever design for this very purpose. It is tough to make a machine replicate: biology is much better at it, by default. Maybe some maniac would eventually succeed, but there are plenty of more low-hanging fruits on the destructive technology tree.

The most obvious risk is that atomically precise manufacturing looks ideal for rapid, cheap manufacturing of things like weapons. In a world where any government could “print” large amounts of autonomous or semi-autonomous weapons (including facilities to make even more) arms races could become very fast – and hence unstable, since doing a first strike before the enemy gets a too large advantage might be tempting.

Weapons can also be small, precision things: a “smart poison” that acts like a nerve gas but seeks out victims, or ubiquitous “gnatbot” surveillance systems for keeping populations obedient seems entirely possible. Also, there might be ways of getting nuclear proliferation and climate engineering into the hands of anybody who wants it.

We cannot judge the likelihood of existential risk from future nanotechnology, but it looks like it could be potentially disruptive just because it can give us whatever we wish for.

Unknown unknowns

The most unsettling possibility is that there is something out there that is very deadly, and we have no clue about it.

The silence in the sky might be evidence for this. Is the absence of aliens due to that life or intelligence is extremely rare, or that intelligent life tends to get wiped out? If there is a future great filter, it must have been noticed by other civilisations too, and even that didn’t help.

Whatever the threat is, it would have to be something that is nearly unavoidable even when you know it is there, no matter who and what you are. We do not know about any such threats (none of the others on this list work like this), but they might exist.

You might wonder why climate change or meteor impacts have been left off this list. Climate change, no matter how scary, is unlikely to make the entire planet uninhabitable (but it could compound other threats if our defences to it break down). Meteors could certainly wipe us out, but we would have to be very unlucky. The average mammalian species survives for about a million years. Hence, the background natural extinction rate is roughly one in a million per year. This is much lower than the nuclear-war risk, which after 70 years is still the biggest threat to our continued existence.

The availability heuristic makes us overestimate risks that are often in the media, and discount unprecedented risks. If we want to be around in a million years we need to correct that.

Today is not the same as yesterday.

Tomorrow will also be different.

The day after is less certain, but probably will be.

Sometime in the past the yesterday may have been the same as today.

Future tomorrows may be the same as today.

Consciousness does not stream it cycles.

Days are broken down into: getting up, becoming comfortable, doing stuff, lunchtime, doing stuff, tea, doing stuff, getting tired, sleeping.

Doing stuff……………..

Thank-you for listening

Its a virtual world our heads are fed and dominated by the digital content sliced and diced by the search engines 24/7/365 frantic unstoppable feeding frenzy. We search, we hunt, they feed and digitize. Making “MIS” (My Internet Site) a priority is a big question and a multi-billion dollar industry, open to bottom feeders and corporations alike. I understand how. Its all about connecting with a client and serving up a service they need, but ensuring they trust enough to part with that which they want to invest, not spend, to make their own clients trust and invest. Entertainment, services, maintaining contact with friends and family, career development, staying “connected”, feeling admired, owning/buying status symbols, artistic expression, the old needs are all there, just digitized. Ok just throwing it around. Thank-you for listening.

Ouroboros